Hey guys welcome back to the channel, and i want to do a video on i. It seems like we're in the perfect storm in a bad way, we're seeing so many things changing in the heating and air industry and we're going to talk about five things that are going to affect the heating and air industry drastically in the next year or two. I've never seen a time like this before in my career i mean, i know, i'm not that old of a fellow, but i've been doing this for over 20 years and in my career, i've never seen anything like this. I remember r22 being phased out years ago and you know 410a was becoming a new refrigerant and of course, over the years we've seen some price increases here or there.

But i've never seen it quite like this. So, let's dive into this five things that are affecting the heating and air industry like i've, never seen the first one would be high prices uh. Just in the last six months, all the big name, heating and air brands have had significant price increases. We've even posted some of those letters that we've gotten a hold of just so you can see it.

My goal was to just warn a lot of you folks, a lot of homeowners that might be in the market for a heating and air system. So if nothing else, you're not shocked when you get a price in comparison to just a couple years ago, i know some of the big name brands. I you know some of them have had significant price increases. Some of them.

It's been multiple price increases. You know they'll raise their prices 10 percent this month and then two or three months later they're raising it another eight to twelve percent and it's just been crazy. So i've just never seen that before in my career i'm sure years ago. You know they probably had something like that, but it's just crazy the bubble that we seem to be on, and i don't know if it's just like significant inflation, that's gon na stay or if we are on some kind of bubble.

I will say that i've never seen prices drop uh, you know with heating and air stuff. I remember when they said that these new refrigerants were going to be coming out, that prices would drop because materials and this and that - and you know that does not look to be the case. I've never in my entire career ever seen the prices drop from year to year. I've seen prices stay the same, but i've never seen them drop.

So it's just crazy. The times that we're in with the high prices the next one would be. I just touched on new refrigerants coming out again: i've never seen it like this before we've seen r12, you know years and years ago our 12 got phased out and of course, just the last decade we saw r22 get phased out, but i've never seen where 410a Right now is being phased out, and now we seem to have a couple refrigerants that are going to be produced uh, so you've got certain brands doing this certain brands doing that, and then you see some brands. It looks like they're going to be doing both they're going to be offering products with both of the new refrigerants that are hitting the market.

The interesting thing on that is, you know: i've done videos before where we talked about this whole phase out, but a lot of these refrigerants. This is nothing new. If you go outside of the us, you know if you go over to europe or asia, they've been using some of these refrigerants for years. We're just now catching up with some of this stuff, so that might add to the storm.

The next one would be a lot of the laws that are now starting uh. You know we talked recently about the efficiency standards are going to raise next year and that's just going to continue as years go on, depending on what state you're in you're, going to be going from a 14 seer minimum to a 15 and then in some states. It's going to go from a 13 to a 14. again, not huge, drastic jumps, but with all this other stuff being introduced to the market.

It's just crazy. Uh. All the new things that we're starting to see number four would be uh the labor shortage, most guys that are in our trade. I don't know anybody, that's not hiring right now, or at least looking.

I think, there's a bunch of reasons for that. You know you could talk about, you know trade schools and you could talk about. Oh the new generations, not like we were uh, it seems like every generation says that you know back in the 50s. They said that about their kids and then you know you jumped all the way up to when i was a kid in the 80s and 90s.

They said the same thing about us and of course they said that about millennials and now they're saying about this new generation, how you know they're all lazy and they're. You know they're all this and that i don't necessarily think that's the case. I don't think a generation of people is going to be lazy or anything like that. I think that there are options that weren't there before you know with the internet and videos like this and different ways, people can make money the old-school way of thinking of well.

You know i'm about to graduate high school. Do i go to college? Do i go in the military, or do i go get a job, and so now kids have more options than that. They may not know that. You know it seems like a lot of them.

Still go to college to get degrees, they don't use, but that's beside the point i think trade schools could be doing a better job of you know, exposing kids to their options and i've even offered some of the trade schools in my area to you know i'll. Come talk to the kids, you know if you have a career day or if you want kids to talk to people that are actually doing something i i've offered and i've never been taken up on that offer good or bad i mean. Maybe it's just you know. Maybe the teachers are like well you're, nothing special! You know, we don't need you talking to the kids, but for the longest time i always thought you know, especially when i started griffenayer uh when i was only 29 years old.

I actually thought that it would be good for me to talk to some of the kids, so they could see someone that wasn't 80, that owned a business anyway i'll get off of that. But you know the labor shortage, regardless of what you want to blame it on. There is a labor shortage in a lot of markets, not all markets, i'm not saying every single, maybe where you're at maybe it's not as big of a deal. But there are a lot of places where every single company is hiring.

There are places that i've helped people that are, you know, subscribed to our new hvac guide and you know just finding a company that will return a phone call because they're all so busy. They don't even have to return phone calls. You know the shortage of labor is just nuts and then finally, i think the fifth thing that is really adding to this perfect storm. If you will is the baby boomer generation, which you know for the longest time, the baby boomer generation was a boom, it was a bunch of kids in comparison to other generations, and those folks are starting to retire, not starting they've already started retiring.

That generation of folks, so because of that, a lot of those folks that were in the trades, for example, if they were doing heating and air or whatever they are now retiring, and they need somebody to take care of their stuff right. So this big generation of people need their air conditioner fixed, there's, not as many folks to fix them. I'm not a scientist or a st. You know i'm not big on statistics.

So if you comment below and be like josh you're wrong, the population has risen in these years and what that's not the point? The point is i'm out here in the real world, where i can see that there is the it appears to be a perfect storm of craziness in our industry, like i've never seen before. That's the perfect storm. If you are experiencing any, you know, problems getting someone to your house or long wait times on getting parts. You know.

I just think that we are just i've, never seen a time like this in our industry so anyway. I hope that actually helps if you're in that situation. I appreciate you watching hit that subscribe button. We'll see you next time.