What is the HVAC industry gonna do as we are about to end the year 2022 and go into 2023.? I Was recently a guest on a podcast. These are some of my favorite guys on YouTube. They're doing exactly what we're doing, which is sharing information with homeowners and consumers about the heating and air industry that a lot of other Pros are trying to keep tight-lipped and so these guys are giving away secrets in the heating and air industry. If you have a moment, give these guys a subscribe.

Their channel is called The Outspoken Engineer. They're based out of the UK and they're just doing some really cool things. So this is a show that we just recently did. We're talking about the state of the HVAC industry currently and some of the future upcoming things, so it was a lot of fun being on their show.

so stay tuned. We're going to show that episode right now. Foreign Outspoken Engineer with Josh HVAC Homeowner's Guide Josh How are you I'm good. How are you doing very well? Thank you very well.

What's the weather like in the states or whereabouts you are in Virginia It's cold. It's colder than usual. Bitter colds how Cold's cold we have. We have some temperatures coming up uh here.

getting close to Christmas that are. We're going to have some nights that are down in the teens Fahrenheit I Don't know what that is Celsius but uh, it's gonna be cold. It sounds cold. So we just had a whole, uh, really cold week here in the UK They've called it the Beast from the East where we've dropped to sort of minus 10 Centigrade which is probably yeah, like minus yeah it's It's not abnormal for the UK but it's warmed up this week.

Um yeah, it's like 11 degrees today. it's 11 degrees today, but it feels warm. But what's happened is Josh is that pool maintenance that hasn't been done and also the cost of energy? The cost of energy. People are uh, a bit panicking this week.

Yeah yeah, we really, uh, it's it's it's it's real taken off for us with with talking about defrost and and that side of things. We have a joke every holiday that um whether it's Thanksgiving or Christmas there's always those folks that just kind of. you know you haven't heard from them in a couple years and then they slip right in there and they need it done right before the holiday every year. okay what what do they come at you with You know they hey I don't have heat or I don't you know AC if it's if it's but Fourth of July for us uh any of our our holidays they'll always.

You know it seems like that last week right before the holiday they uh okay hey hey we need this I've got family coming in, we need this done by by the holiday and you know we I don't know how you guys are, but you know we try to prioritize things if you. If you get swamped with work, you gotta, you know you gotta prioritize. You got to take care of the folks that have been taking care of you so for sure for sure. Um Josh I Know it's not big in the States but in the UK there's a huge you know you you Google Air Source Heat pumps.

um or YouTube them and you'll see the amount of channels popping up and people talking about this sort of product. Air Source heat pumps aren't even they're not active in America Are they so to have a system? It looks like an air conditioning condenser with a heat exchanger and then you run. you have a tank inside. You don't have them in the states do you? I Have we have what we call air source heat pumps but what you're describing I'm not sure is the same thing we have.

You know your outdoor unit? Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry. uh are you are you sort of saying geothermal or you? what are you elaborating on? Maybe I think I Probably should let you spoke there. So what When we talk air source heat pumps to you, What does that mean to you? So we have.

We have heat pump systems. especially here in Virginia. We're in the middle part of the country and so we have a lot of heat pumps. Um so we'll you know we'll have an outdoor unit.

uh we call it you know an air source you know So it'll be an outdoor condensing unit. Um yeah. and there's different types obviously. but um, we we still have what we call the unitary style so we don't have the as many of the side discharge where the fan blows out the front.

Um yeah. okay and especially especially when we're talking about holes. Is that heating for your for your air con as in your you know, your central plant or how is your hot water generated? Oh uh. we have water heaters for that for the most part.

Electric and gas. So we have two separate. It's a separate entity in itself. So uh, there are systems that they have that they'll get their heat off of.

You know they'll have hydronic heating. but um, most of our customers they're going to have a separate water heater and it's separate from their their air conditioning and heating and it. and is there is there a driver in the states to convert your gas water heater to an electric water heater to sort of become more eco? Or is that it you know? Is that something which people are doing? Yeah uh. especially the heat pump water heaters that have come out in the last few years? That's uh, that's new to us as far as you know.

I Don't remember heat pump water heaters being a thing when I started in this industry but now they're more of a thing and we have certain states that are are more aggressive than others at catching up with you guys. Um, so we do have states that are starting to ban uh, you know, not fossil fuels of all kinds of appliances. You know they're doing away with furnaces. They're doing away with water heaters.

Okay, well, we've We recently did a video which we're going to follow up with to make it even more clearer. and that's where you know you're you. You know how much air conditioning and HVAC units cost, but these units these Asos heat pumps. You know they're super efficient.

You sort of get you know, efficiency ratings of sort of 400 to 600 percent. but we've sort of. We've sort of done the math and the the cost to install and the cost to replace. you're so much better off having an electrical water heater because of the cost is is a fifth of the price.

Um, and a lot of people are having these fitted in their properties and I think they're going to be in for a bit of a shock when they come to replace them. I Don't know if you have. You know you might have a bit of more experience on this sort of topic because in the States Aircon has been, you know it's been prolific in most properties, right? so would you? would it put a homeowner off buying a property If the air conditioning unit is a certain type or certain brand or a certain age, or is that never really a a problem? people just expect the cost to be quite High Uh, you know I Think that people expect uh to for it to be an investment for most of our customers. Their heating and air system is going to be the third largest investment that they make in their lifetime.

You know, Uh, behind buying a home, buying a car? Uh, they're they. They've gotten to where you know their Their heating and air systems are quite an investment. I Think that recently in the last five years, especially in the last two years, it's become more of an investment more than ever. Um, you know, the way prices have jumped with inflation.

But also with the new ratings, the new efficiency ratings that we now have that are kicking in in about two weeks. Um, okay, but it's it's it's compounding. You know we're having new refrigerants being introduced to to our country. Um, they've banned 410A So we're behind you guys.

We get to watch you show us what the future looks like they've been. They've banned 410A Or they're phasing it out. They're phasing it out. but they're speeding things up.

So I Just did a video. Uh, it hasn't gone live yet, right? But it's going to be going live in the next week or two. But they have now sped it up nationally that they're saying by this date there's no more 410A Refrigerant Systems. What is that? date Josh If I remember correctly for residential, it's going to be January 1st 2025 I think so just two years is the ban a new installation right? So for me Yeah Well yeah it's gonna.

it's gonna cover all new equipment and for us up to this point. Um, we have not had a specific date so they've They've been announcing all these things. They had the Aim act get uh passed a couple years ago and of course uh, you know there was the I might not pronounce this correctly, but the Kigali agreement. That was a worldwide agreement from you know, all these different nations and so we've had all these things happening.

We've known all these things are coming, but this is the first time that here in the U.S we have an actual date where someone has said this is it and it has not been passed yet but it will be I mean I'm I'm fairly certain of that. The usually when the EPA comes out with something in our country, they don't really have to answer to anybody. They just kind of do what they want so it'll get passed. I'm sure and and 410A are you replacing with R32 Great question.

We don't know, some yes, some know. So it's a big topic right now because some manufacturers are fighting over this right now so we do know from what I can tell and again this may not be accurate if somebody watches this in the future. but um right now Daikin has said that they're going to be R32 you know there's no compromise from what I can tell they're not compromising and then we have companies like he yeah, sorry, Josh I was just going to sort of uh, butt in and say R32 Daikin I've got a large part with R32 So they actually created the refrigerant a few years ago and they sold the painting um but it's big in Australia uh Daikin is all R32 UK and Europe is all R32 so the Daikin Trend will probably follow to the states. um what other brands that you were just about to say about another brand with another fridge type so I don't know what I'm allowed to share because I have had some kind of behind closed-door conversations with things that were said that I might not have that I probably wasn't supposed to hear maybe I don't know but um I can say that uh a large amount of other brands Brands like Carrier especially are going more towards uh refrigerant called uh 454 B and it has a lower gwp and it's a you know a blend I believe and yeah they you know that's where they're going with it.

so I think um I don't know the the official politics and I might be wrong in this but Honeywell I think may be part of apart the same group as carrier um and I think Honeywell created all four or five before R454b and I think that might be their reason behind it. They're using their own gas. Um, we've the only time we've come across all R45b is a lot of chillers. Chillers now are either one, two, three, four, Ze R454b or R32 Um.

touching on R32 Um, really, really, really important question for you here is is it flammable in the United States So they are classifying it, uh, as a what they call mildly flammable? uh, refrigerant. They're saying that certain conditions have to be met and they're classifying it as what they call an A2l refrigerant. That's it. Same as here.

Okay, and what does that mean for yourselves? Does that mean you have to have a spark free vacuum pump? Does it mean you have to have a fire label on the condenser in the indoor unit? You know what does that mean for you guys? Oh, that's a good question. I don't know the answer to that yet. Uh, I'm sure every state will be different. Um, okay, have you got yeah? Have you got our 600a where you are? Josh Which is the propane that are in fridges? Do you have our 600 A.m States We have them in some, uh, recreational vehicles, but I've never seen it used in residential other than an actual furnace.

something that's burning the fuel. But as far as the refrigerators and Refrigeration goes, I've only seen it in recreational vehicles. Okay, so um, if I was to say Josh I've got a crystal ball here. When you have R32 in the States this is what's going to happen.

and this is what happened in the UK The cost of our 410A is going to go through the roof for you. So in the UK it was about 110 pounds. So let's call it 150 for 10 kilos. When they initially banned it, the cost went up from a hundreds or 20 100.

Let's call it 150 to 800 within a week and people were basically selling it on eBay it went berserk. It's actually now come back down to the original price of 150, but they exploited it so much with all the talk that it went berserk where people were selling on eBay people were reclaiming old Vrvs or old furnaces and selling the gas on eBay and making an absolute Fortune Um, Vac pumps. Your vacuum pumps have to be A2l approved, which are they're just basically sparkless. Um, every single outdoor and indoor unit has to have a sticker.

Um, and I think there's a and there's a few other methods with handling it because of it being an A2l. Um, the the concerning thing is is uh, R32 refrigerant isn't flammable in Japan It's only flammable in Europe And this has always been the big thing. You would speak to a manufacturer about this and they would just scratch the heads and be like yeah, I can't really I Can't tell you this but I don't think it's flammable and I'm like let me get a lighter out and try it. you know it's it's yeah, it's very odd.

it's very odd, but it it'll be good for you guys in the States because it'll keep you all busy, you'll all need to be retrained and people will have more new systems installed so there's a great be positive to that. Yeah, it's going to be interesting. There's a lot of folks that in our industry that it took them a long time to even learn how to use. 410A Refrigerant We used R22 when I started out and it was a very forgiving refrigerant.

The guy that I learned under would just kind of dial in his his needles on his, his uh, gauges and uh and just kind of grabbed the line and that you know it was what he called beer can cold and move on. but we learned real quick with 410 you can't do that. You know you've got to take proper measurements and you know, do your sub cool, superheat All those things that you know a lot of these guys just don't want to get on board with so it'll be interesting I I Love Change I Love new technologies as long as it's advantageous to the consumer, as long as it's good for the customer or the planet, right? But uh, of course I'm okay with with change as you know I don't I'm not okay with change just to make change and to make things more expensive to to customers, but I am okay with it phasing out these guys that should not be in our trade. To start with these handyman that just kind of do it for beer money.

you know they don't know what they're doing. They buy these what we call DIY units and they you know I'm okay with them being phased out. So one of one of the benefits sorry I didn't mention with R32 is the the the refrigerant and the the volume of the refrigerant. So on a you know, like a split you know, like a I don't know you'd call it a nine ton nine ton split unit on a wall, a wall mount, you know, a little small unit for a bedroom.

you may have a you may have like 1.2 kilos of r410a with R32 you'd have 0.75 so you get much more efficiency out of the refrigerant per volume so you're actually having lower gas charges. That's probably the best thing that we've come across with. R32 Um yeah it's You know that's what you might have in the states. in the in the UK There's been talk of banning R32 in the next 12 12 to 24 months and bring in and using CO2 or something even different, you know? Um so the future's a bit.

uh you know the future's bit. We'll call it bright or call it you know something. Something's going to change massively for us and our 32 might not be here to stay. I believe R32 Did you ever get our 407c in the States? Uh, I Believe that's a drop in refrigerant use for R22 I believe I could be wrong on that.

Yeah, so it's so what happened. Yeah, that's exactly it. So it's a blend. It's a free stage blend.

in the UK we banned R22 In the early night in the late 90s, like 98 99, they brought out our 407c, introduced that to a lot of aircon systems, realized how bad it was, or you know it wasn't here to stay and then they brought out 410A Um I think R32 is another 407c personally. I think it will be gone in a few years and they'll bring something I Think it's a nice gap gas, you know I'm I'm already right there with you. The uh, the the fact that they're monitoring Gwp so close, and the new law that is going to be going into effect with us starting in 2025. or at least that's when the EPA says it's going to be passed.

Um, or it's going to go into effect and that is when 410A actually is phased out and we go to these other refrigerants. They've already said that the refrigerant used has to be below 700 Gwp. Well, you know Now we're right. We're right there at R32 Then you know, so it's not going to take much for them to now say okay, now you know Now we're going to go down to 300 or or zero.

You know? Um, it's coming. Yeah, and you're I Think you're right. We're just going to be a few years behind you guys. Okay, um I Just want to throw a scenario at you if I was in the states and I'll give you the exact time.

In my opinion, the answer in the UK you know say say you're on the verge of retirement and you want the cheapest running, cheapest installing heating system in your house. So let's call it a two-bedroom house. reasonably sized. You know, under a thousand square foot you want Heating And you want hot water? You want cheap bills? you know, or low or or reasonable bills.

but you want a low-cost installation? What would you suggest? Air conditioning, electric air source? You know what? What would your what would your preferred solution be? Well, if we're only talking about cheap, you know I'm I'm a big proponent of not just cheap, but reliability. You know when something that's gonna you know not only be cheap today, but cheap in the long run. Looking back 15 years, was this a decision? A good decision? 15 years ago sort of decision. Um, that said, I Here in the states, uh, probably the big three when it comes to inverter systems are gonna probably be Daikin Mitsubishi and Fujitsu and I would probably if I were building a home that small.

I'm I'm gonna be installing one of their products in my house and um, you know, I'm probably gonna be looking at what you know, it just depends on the house, depends on the floor plan, but you know a lot of these inverter systems here. they're you're going to get a good warranty, you're gonna get a, um, a great system, you know, efficient and um, you know, heat pumps have come a long way. You know it Two decades ago, they they were pretty useless below 30 degrees Fahrenheit But these days you know some of these guys are working well below freezing temperatures and saving folks money. So how about you and and then uh, but well before I answer the the cost.

The cost difference in the states between M3 products. what is the difference in cost in the UK Fujitsu is a lot low cost than the other two that you can admit see. But what? How is the pricing in the states? uh I mean I Don't want to say anything that's inaccurate, you know. um, but I would say that across the board Mitsubishi's probably going to be a little more expensive, but you get what you pay for.

If you ever need a part, Mitsubishi is going to probably Mitsubishi and Daikin are are pretty good about having Parts availability in comparison. Um to okay, you know I Always tell folks here I don't know how it is there, but here it's the big three and then there's everyone else. So it's it's Daikin Mitsubishi Fujitsu and then that's everyone else. I Don't you know I have these guys that are just in love and I'm not going to mention any names but some of these Chinese Brands and they want to pretend that they're just as good and they're just not.

They're just now. if you're talking about do they blow cold air on a hot day? Well yeah, if that's if that's our, our, our, our, what, the brand, the metric that we're going to use, well then fine. But if we're talking about performance reliability Parts availability support all if you know, fill in blank across the board. it's the big three and then it's everyone else.

Don't tell me that they're just as good because we wouldn't be having this conversation if they were sure. you got me started. One yeah, why 100? So one one thing, which um, which we've had recently with this cold weather is this Defrost. Where defrost has been a massive issue when we're talking about, they can and Mitzi I can't speak too much from Jujitsu because we don't do a lot enough of them.

But it's quite easy to explain how Defrost works because of the two products. You know the outdoor unit becomes a certain temperature for a certain amount of time. the outdoor unit decides to defrost for it to then heat again and work efficiently. That's why it defrosts when you're talking about Chinese products.

Sometimes they defrost on time, so they'll run for an hour and defrost, but at the end of the hour it could be completely Frozen and there's no efficiency. And also, it'll defrost. You know when it likes and it's very difficult to explain to the client why it's defrosting the way it is with a Chinese product. Um, but yeah, the Chinese products in the UK some of them one of the brands I'm not going to mention it, but it is getting better.

Well, Media Media is getting better as a product, but they're actually no longer any more low cost than the Japanese I Don't know if you've got this in the states, so a lot a basic budget uh, split system Media or Mitsubishi Electric Mitzi Electric have actually brought out a lower cost product to rival them and the cost is almost identical. Um I Don't know if you you're the same with pricing out there. Yeah, I mean I I think that it's probably the same. Um, but in a lot of cases.

see, that's the thing You know. we're seeing a lot of Brands and I I don't I I Don't want to say anything inaccurate, but we're seeing a lot of brands that are partnering with one another and you're seeing that. You know you'll see Japanese brands come out with products that are very inexpensive and they're just relabeled Chinese products right? But um okay I mean that I mean that's the truth of the matter I mean no, you'll you'll You're right. They'll say you know this is partnering with this brand and you're like, well, partnering on what what are you guys doing the shows So that that stopped.

So Daikin Daikin had a product a few years ago in the UK Like that it was a siesta range and it was a completely different product and it was in my opinion it was junk. It was cheap and it was nasty and it was junk and it would last for five years and you'd put it in the bin and someone would say I've got a baking unit um I've got Daikin unit and it's not working and it isn't a dating unit. it's just got a dating patch. but they've stopped that here in the UK now.

Um, and we've not really had many re-badge products because a lot of the Chinese DIY units in the UK now are Chinese products and they use the Chinese components. So that stopped here in the UK thankfully. But I understand your frustration because when you quote against um you know people which are quoting a product which they think is the same as yours and it's not, it becomes incredibly frustrating, right? Because it's not. It's not like for like we we actually change someday because you know you've got to figure out how to put food on the table.

But for us we we have a a level of quality that a brand or a product has to meet for us to even consider installing it. Do you have? Do you guys do that? Or do you pretty much install whatever you know you need to? We? we have certain. Yeah, We most inverse every. every air conditioning system is now an inverter, so it's very difficult for us to install something which is, you know, which is substandard and they're all about almost the same.

So the Market's kind of narrowed itself down on performance so there are no longer really, you know, poor efficient units versus everyone else being super efficient. So there's no there's no high or low. they're all about the same now efficiency wise. So touching on um Ben said uh, obviously we had our customers do it this weekend.

yeah, um and a friend of mine Mark came and he shared a story with me which is quite concerning and I want to share this now so people can see what's going on? Um, but before actually before I comment on this. Um I Visited the court recently up in Ipswich to do a call out and normally house repossessions are one a week and house repossessions are actually currently uh, 10 a day. So yeah, I think you said something. you said something about that.

Yeah, So it cut long story short in that side of the world in the Midlands in the UK people are losing their houses because they're struggling. Yeah, um that's one. Let's put that to one side. the other side of the coin is Market My Christmas do yeah and he was at his local shop on Saturday and an elderly lady was expecting her pension on the Friday.

Okay and for some reason something that happened and her money hadn't arrived. So basically what's happened is is she said she was talking to herself saying oh I don't know what I'm going to do My electricity bill comes out on Monday and it was something like 90 pounds I don't have a pension. one of the payments are et cetera et cetera. Moral of the stories: Mark Patty Give the money some of the lady some money and she's now paid her electricity bill.

Um I'm I'm assuming the lady is on electric and she's not on gas and that's just up the road. so you know people are struggling out there at the moment. and I I don't know a lot of people on electric I think they're the ones that are going to be facing the brunt. Yeah, so you know we know everything is going electric.

but I personally feel that staying gas is the safest way. Um, over the next five years of having money in your bank. Yeah, I mean I was listening to this. uh, this other podcast.

oh I think it was a radio station and there's an uh, a cooler that called in saying about how hard he's struggling as an old guy with his own with his dog and he said that he was struggling so much to pay his bills and he's afraid that he was going to pass away in his house, uh, throat freeze to death with his dog. Really? Yeah. and the the radio station actually took it upon themselves to give him money to pay all the back because they were going to turn his electricity off. Damn.

so they basically turned a bad thing. I mean yeah. and they got in touch with the council to get the help that he needed Because they were. they were kept like palming him off for sure for sure it's crazy, but yes, super negative about this.

but I'm just being a realist. If you're trying to reduce your carbon footprint and Go full Electric Just remember, you're not always going to earn the money you're earning today to install something to replace it. and you know, look over 10 years if you've got a gas boiler and it's working. Just leave it man, because you could put yourself in fuel poverty in 10 years time.

While you're looking at Five Six Seven thousand Pounds to replace your heat pump with a heat pump, you know you're not. It's not a crime to stay on gas China Are burning 30 million tons of coal a day for electricity. You having a gas boiler isn't going to upset anyone, it's you know. God will not punish you for this.

If anything, you might be able to sleep better or not knowing that your electricity bills aren't going up. So just be smart. Don't get involved with the hype and say people are going air source. There are YouTube channels people talking about aircon units on uh, air source.

heat pumps aren't efficient below Five Minus five because here's the proof: Airsoft Heat pumps are So efficient. The issue that I have isn't the efficiency. The efficiency is the cost to install these bloody things. You know you're paying seven to eight thousand pounds.

A gas boiler replacement or an electric boiler replacement is like 1500 quid. Come on. Just be wise. be outspoken.

Be you know, be happy to say what you feel rather than just following this trend of yeah I Think we've got an issue. You know, for us, it's great. It's great for business, but it's not always about the business. it's about.

you know, surviving and and suggesting what's you know? Well Ben so have you got gas ball at home? Ben Um, no. We've got Electric Electric boiler. Yeah, Oh have you yeah? I didn't know this. You have an electric boiler.

Yeah, and obviously electric has gone up. Have you noticed substantial electricity costs? Has it gone up significantly? Uh, not. I Wouldn't say significantly when we started worrying, but it's gone up. Yeah.

Okay, and if I was to say that, we could put something in which would halve your monthly costs, yeah, you know, would you And you'd obviously go into that. Yeah, But if you turn around and said it, it's going to cost you five or six grand. Now you're gonna tell me, no, no, not chance. and that's what I'm trying to get across to people and we're going to keep shouting this until we get told to shut up Josh I Don't know if you caught what I was doing I'm not gonna use your drunk because I wasn't ranting or ranting.

it's just I'm So for efficiency and I think efficiency is so important. but I think we're slowly becoming a nation of stupidity. super stupidity. And that's where people have something in their house, whether it's a gas boiler or an electric boiler and they're getting involved with this Eco efficiency.

And somebody will say having an air source, heat pump, or even an air conditioning unit for that matter. But the benefit with Aircon is it does. Cooling And it does heating. And that's completely different because it's a luxury.

but people are willing to cut their energy bills in half by having this installed. but paying 8 000 pounds at the same time, it makes no sense to me at all for heating. I Don't know if that's you. You have that where you, are, but it's getting massive here and it's I'm Quite frankly, it's concerning because if you were to Google how long an air source heat pump lasts, you've got P You've got media saying you know an air source heat pump lasts 20 years.

You know how long does an air conditioning unit last in the states 20 years? Have they been even out for 20 years? They haven't even been out for 20. So there's no way they could possibly test that and you speak to people and they say this system is maintenance free or I've got a I've got a really good warranty on it and it will last me for you know, 15 20 years. But you know Josh that the maintenance costs of an air conditioning system is more than a a boiler and the cost replacement for parts and then the cost to replace the unit. but this is only to heat and hot water so it's like I don't know.

We've been misled massively in the UK massively with this and uh, I'm probably gonna get told to be quiet eventually by someone about it, but at the moment we're going to keep shouting yeah we we. Sometimes you have to ask when certain people say things, who's paying them to say that or what's their motivation behind saying the things they're saying. We have a lot of that in the States as well, and in fact there are, uh, there are government incentives and and money that they will give homeowners to make decisions. Sometimes and sometimes I feel like they need to take a step back and and understand what what they're being told I'll give you a good example.

uh you know I'm I have no desire to be political uh when it comes to my YouTube stuff because you know people are just you know way too close-minded these days. um but that you know that's a whole nother topic. Yeah, but I think the the. It's interesting that we have one side in our country that used to push for things like natural gas and and these clean burning fuels and that same side if you will in our country has now flip-flopped and is now saying that you know they want full electric everything.

it's to not burn fuels at all and I don't really care I mean if they they can have whatever opinion they want to have, but if you're if you're listening to this it it makes you wonder. okay who was paying who for all those years that you were pushing natural gas and who's paying who Now yes you know, uh it's it. and of course they use. They use these um these ideal uh you know reasons these re you know these pedestal you know I want things to be this way so that's why I I feel the way I feel and they they play on people's hearts with that stuff when in reality it's all money.

it's it's somebody's paying somebody to to push an agenda. The the concerning thing is Josh the concern with this and again it's not politics, it's because we're dealing with people's lives and their houses. You know, in 10 years time where we have properties with all electric and the cost to replace is so high? I I Fear people are gonna uh, they're gonna basically be paying mortgages and paying for energy and replacing. You know they're not going to be able to say my gas boiler works or my diesel boiler Works They're gonna say well I need to put this money aside this year because I need to replace my HVAC system.

Um, you know which is such a complicated system. the engineering and the engineers or the techs as you have in the states technicians. they're on a lot more money because it's more sophisticated and then it really is gonna to. and then it could even inflate even more that your house may not even be able to have a mortgage on it.

if it doesn't have this electrical equipment inside the house. you know it's it's um, yeah, it's interesting. It really is interesting, but you know we'll find out shortly. but shortly over the next few years.

So um Josh want to touch on? um basically what what you think for next year? Really? that's why I think we want to get this on? You know we're near the end of 2022. I think if you went to the beginning of the year into the end of the year to be like us, we've just gone. This has been crazy. The what this year has been I'm tired.

it's the first year at the end of the I'm done I'm done right. Me on holiday? Yeah, get me on holiday. Um next year there is going to be interesting. Have you got any knowledge from the states with new products? I know you've mentioned the new Seer is CO2 isn't it your new uh legislation? Um is.

Yeah So I want from you predictions but I want them immediately. Um what do you think's gonna bring this where you are in the states and 2023? Yeah, so uh, 2023 it will be the first year that we officially have to be using equipment that is Uh has a CO2 rating attached to it. and so I've made this prediction in other videos but I don't even think it's that bold of a prediction. Okay, what's interesting is I made I made this prediction two years ago and I had folks that even other Professionals in our industry tell me how wrong I was and that was I said years ago that Seer is going to become a thing of the past.

It's not an accurate representation yeah of comparing a an inverter system to anything else. Okay, you know when you have a an inverter variables you know flow system that is super efficient. You can attach a 17 Seer rating to it and folks will think well, this single stage system or to multi-stage two-stage system that's also 17 or even eight teen a little higher is is better or just as good and it's just simply not true. So I made that prediction years ago and I'm and I'll just say that CO2 will eventually become a thing of the past too.

It's not a good accurate representation of being able to compare systems. It's like saying that you know I'm going to compare gas mileage on these two cars, but yet one of the cars runs on electric most of the time for sure, you know. So how could you compare it to a gas car even if they both get the same gas mileage when one of them is is not even using gas half the time gotcha. So I think that uh CR2 will eventually become a thing of the past I don't think that'll be in the next year, but I'm with you I I Have I've been in this industry for, you know, a couple decades now and I have never seen it like this.

I've never I've never made a YouTube video and then months later it's outdated that it it. It's no longer accurate because now we have new legislation. You know being passed. Yeah, for sure.

Um 2023 is going to be a year that things are going to drastically change Here in the States, We're going to see products that have that have never been introduced. We're gonna have brands that folks have never even heard. they're going to become household names and and of course the technology and such. So with the CO2 ratings and then we've already touched on refrigerant.

Uh, over the next 12 to 18 months again I A video I make today won't even be accurate anymore because of all the new things that could come out Gotcha. Okay, well you've got I think a lot of the UK and European sort of element to the industry which is going to start being implemented to yourself over in the states. and it I Think it is all quite positive in terms of the changes, but the industry will change massively for you because you are all going to have to be retrained. You know, because things are drastically different.

Um for us in the UK next year, my prediction is in terms of the products. I I've been a bit pessimistic for a while now I Believe the air conditioning Refrigeration Industry is hitting a plateau I think it stopped I think I think we're almost there with efficiency I Think we can't really get that much more efficient without spending you know, having a chiller which is significantly more efficient but cost double the price I think we've hit that we're there I Don't think we I think there needs to be a breakthrough in Heating and Cooling and it might be next year and it might be an an electrical cell. it might be a hybrid I Don't know it could be a height something hybrid. Um, that's the pessimistic side.

but in terms of the positive side I Know you've got this in the States with control. I Believe next year is going to be all about control. it's all going to be Advanced Control How to get maximum efficiency reviewing efficiency of air conditioning. Why is air conditioning products in offices, homes, schools, etc.

etc. Why is it really you know? Why Is it really expensive at this time of the day and we're going to try and combat that by reducing energy costs. An example of this is certain supermarkets that we deal with which I won't mention on the camera is they have a um every controller has to be restricted to 19 degrees centigrade to 23 degrees Centigrade so they can no longer get above and that goes in line with I think that I don't know if you remember Ben We might have spoken with Josh about this, but I think parts of Spain during the heat wave were finding people for using their condition. Have you come across this Josh over 27 degrees Centigrade They weren't allowed to switch the AC up.

it was had to be set to 27 degrees. Did you come across this? Josh Yeah Do you still see me? I'll see you coming in yeah I'll see you I'll see you Yeah okay, but I think your browsers still stop recording gotcha? Uh sorry I just I Got another message but uh yeah I uh I did a video on this. It's not just Spain there are multiple parts of the world where countries are, uh, controlling this, where they're saying they you know you're gonna in the wintertime You're Gonna Keep Your temperature below this temperature and in the summertime You're Gonna Keep it above this temperature. The interesting thing becomes when we're talking about the residential side of things is how will they control that And some folks think they can't but they can.

Especially if they are making everyone switch to electrical. They can, uh, not just uh. if nothing else, they can at least monitor it and and know what you're doing and know what temperature you're keeping it at. And with that, be able to pass legislation or things like that.

So um, yeah, it's It's a big topic because you know when when countries like ours can see how other countries are handling it, It opens your eyes. It shows you that those sorts of things can happen. It's something which you would probably be called a conspiracy theorist. I Think it the the hard, You know, the hard left will call you that.

and I'm on your side with this. Um I think we've all got a right to be online. you know. Whereas if you have an air conditioning system which is a has a Wi-Fi module in yes, it can be, it can be monitors.

um, you know if the cost of energy continues to rise I think the push for the Wi-Fi in the aircon will become more important because I think it will be sold to us as it is. Uh is the bet You because of some of the apps that we have for our air conditioning systems are fantastic and really you need to get the best at to get the best out of your air conditioning system. you need to have it on your mobile phone. um on a commercial uh basis.

I Think control is going to continue to increase because they we're going to need to control the AC to remotely to be able to see where how we can use them more efficiently. Um, last year Josh and we've had it this year a bit as well. Where with Covid and Air Purification, we've had quite a few air conditioning systems of purification. So last year in this year air purification has been quite big, including it into air conditioning systems I Believe that's going to die off next year I Don't know if you've got if that's been big for you this this year in the states? Yeah, I mean it's it's we've had indoor air quality uh, stuff being pushed, especially in the heating and air industry at the residential level for years now, so covet just uh, helped with that or or pushed that more.

Okay, where you saw you know, hospitals and schools and places like that pushing for more types of products to clean the air. But um I don't think that you know that's going to change on As far as the you know when you're talking about a Residential Heating and Air service tech going into someone's home and offering Solutions I Think here, at least here, those Solutions will continue to grow I Think that you know it's not going to go away gotcha. Well I Think that'll be added to the feathers in the Hat of options if you were to have a wall mounted split system with an optional air purifier I think it's an option for a for a customer to have in the UK It's died down massively so a lot of the systems that have the air purification quite often they don't even have it switched on because they don't really need it, but they're just built in anyway. So is that the main selling point then? because obviously I won't hear during covert air purification like a big part of it because I've always thought because of my friends and things, they started working from home so they didn't have access to their cool coffee shops and stuff when they're out and it would hit that massive summer overlooking.

We had to stay in your door indoors. It was a great sell. It was an easy shell. You know, Covid? You know, viruses.

Our air conditioning unit kills viruses. That was one. Um. and also, you know what when when you know when it's you know, make hay while the sun is shining right? I Don't know if you know that in this.

Is that a saying in the States? Yeah, yeah. You know there's never waste a crisis. So you know people said, here's the purifier. It'll cost double the price.

Do you want it and people are shouting for it? But you know and will never make you healthy. Remember, Just remember, just remember that. just remember that. Um, but that's kind of.

You know that's not as big as it was. Maybe it'll be. It'll become, you know, slightly big. You've got the likes of a Panasonic big in the states.

Josh Ah, I wouldn't say big. Uh, we. we can get them. but they're They have very small market share compared to others.

Okay, so Panasonic in the UK is quite a small market share. It's a Rising brand though. Um, they've got a system called Nano X and it's A. It's a generator built into each air conditioning system which is a purifier.

It's record-breaking technology and it's very good. It does reduce you know, pollutants and it removes smells. but they've also put this into cars. So any Land Rover Jaguar that you buy as of 2023 has this Panasonic product in it so you know it's it's something which may may be big in the states I Don't know it's it's okay here in the UK The problem that we found with it is it makes the product more expensive.

so it's a medium brand product with a which is now the cost of a higher end product. So unless you want the Nano X system you know you'll you'll end up pricing Panasonic at the market because universally get you compared them against the Daikin and people won the dike in because of the brand and it's the same price. so that's the I don't know I I think you mentioned something earlier about different brands and Chinese products and loads I think next year for us as well is going to be similar to that Josh where I think where there is so much option for air conditioning products now I Think people are going to be sport for choice and people are going to do whatever they can to get the sale. so it's you know there are different strategies for the brands.

Next year some of them are going through Distributors some of them are selling direct but as the Japanese say all they're doing is selling boxes. so they're going to do whatever they can to sell them boxes. and if the if the recession does hit like it's supposed to hit which I believe it will hit Um people are going to sell boxes. anyway they possibly can.

So I think it might be worth us setting up eBay stores because I think and selling these products because I think it will go I think it will resort to that. You know we've not lived through a recession where people can't afford anything but secondhand air conditioning products we would never dream of installing I think we might get there eventually. Will it be next year? I Don't know. Um, but you know we're busy I don't know about you Josh But we're booked up.

we're booked next year or our first couple of months we're very busy. people are still spending. Is that a trend that you have in the states? Yeah. I mean we're we're uh, I don't know I Can't say that we're booked for months.

We do mostly. Service uh but we uh I I think that you know as far as what I loved what you just said because I think if someone were to catch this video and I I just want to, you know, throw this out there if somebody catches our video and I know we've talked about a lot of Doom and Gloom and a lot of you know, uh, horrible situations or or whatever. however folks want to look at it I Think what this ultimately boils down to is for someone that whether they live in the UK or in the US if they're in the market for a heating and air system and they catch this video, there are going to be options in the future that we currently don't have. And so we're talking about a lot of Doom and Gloom stuff.

But it's not all doom and gloom. There's gonna be uh, you know ways there's gonna be things again. There's gonna be technologies that you've never heard of and even Brands. And because of that, uh, you've already mentioned some of the brands that are already household names coming up with, with other Solutions offering less expensive options and things like that.

So it's it's. not just you know, there's a lot of craziness. There's a lot of you know, what you could probably say is Doom and Gloom but there's going to be a lot of options out there that you know folks are going to be able to consider when they never would have considered it before because of you know, newer Technologies or newer options and the the, um, the the biggest you know Doom and Gloom is actually the other. When we discuss Doom and Gloom, the biggest positive that comes out of this is we're ready and we're knowing where things may go and it's better to be proactive than reactive.

It's better to service your your HVAC system than wait for it to break. And I think it's an engine I think if you're an engineer I think you'd mentally or you strategically. just do it. It's it's just been a bit real.

but Doom and Gloom is so important because you kind of you, you just see things a little bit differently rather than yes, we're really busy. it's really busy. Aircon people are still having it and not really understanding what's happening because you know if a new product comes out next year and we sort of we're expecting it. We kind of know where it leads next.

or if you have an air conditioning system with an air purifier you now know or you now need to show your Tech Guys how to switch it on or you know or you need to explain to the client how it works because I don't know about you Josh But a lot of our customers now are doing a lot of youtubing and Googling and they actually know as much as I do on certain products and it's not frustrating. It's actually brilliant because it's a price for fresh air for people to want you know to to get to get this and again it goes back to the Whirlwind year and it's gonna go into next year where we need to be on top of our game. We need to know more than anyone and we need to understand what's happening and why. otherwise we get left behind and we're We're going to be caught as Warren Buffett said says swimming naked Somebody will suggest a product, you'll go or never heard of it and then automatically you're disqualified from the quoting procedure.

or you know, whatever Whatever way, uh, you quote for the work and you and and you'll be learning reactively where rather than proactively. Yeah, if you're not following along, if if you, uh, are in the market for a heating and air system, you know you should be following Jacob you should be following us. There's going to be products that hit the market that we're both going to be sharing over the next year or two. That and it's going to change the industry.

It's this is not me just being crazy and and you know, predicting things I've already heard about it I'm not allowed to share a few of the things, but I've already I've had closed-door conversations on things that I'm like, can I share that and they're like, no, you can't You know Daikin's coming out with a new thermostat. Uh, that launches. Well, it's it's already launched. You can buy it, but it, but you won't be able to hold it in your hands until next month.

And I knew about that thermostat a year ago. What's it called? It's the Daikin One Touch So it's like the Daikin one. Uh, but it doesn't have the little spinny dial anymore. It's okay.

it's all touch screen. okay. and so I I Heard about that thermostat a year ago, but I wasn't allowed to talk about it yet. Okay, okay, okay, um, but you know there's there's stuff coming that folks that you know I'm telling you, uh, they're gonna.

it's not all doom and gloom. there's some stuff coming that you know they're gonna. They're gonna be able to to have other options and consider things that are more efficient for their home and maybe not spend quite so much money because they just keep seeing prices go up for sure. but you know it's not.

It's not all doom and gloom. I'm gonna give you a uh and people watching, you know I think this is. this is my take on a lot of things. It's not the economy in general, but in regards to HVAC and air conditioning.

um Mitsubishi Electric in the UK Daikin in the UK they've had a record year. they I don't know if it's the same in the in the States but they've sold. You know they've done really well. I know you've done podcasts on this Josh about um and I'm just going to touch on this and we can probably put a link below uh once we finish recording but you've done a podcast on um where all the HVAC text going which was really interesting.

watch that one. Okay, and this leads on to I've spoken to Dakin about this last week and I'll rep. uh I think he listened and I think he understood this but I can see this happening next year Josh and it's it's Doom and Gloom but it's a scenario and it can really help shape your business or it can help shape bacon or Mitzi if they want to look at it this way, you might be able to produce the products. but if you haven't got the team to deliver the products to the people and that's if you're a distributor or or the manufacturer itself.

You've then got too much product to sell to your HVAC companies and they don't have the people to do the work but they can't charge that much more because the cost will hit a ceiling. They can't get the HVAC text and also they're not willing to train up the HVAC tax which take about two to three years by the way to train. Uh, you know to do some work, you then have a problem where the industry stops or your industry could stop. It's not just HVAC and then you have materials which you can't get hold of or parts you can't get hold of because nobody wants to make aircon components anymore or nobody wants to be involved with aircon anymore because it's no fun.

You know it's there's no, there's not enough. uh, time on the computer making it and then what happens is you've got HVAC text which the baby boomer generation were massive Engineers you know, but they're all retired now and they're not being replaced and I believe it takes a good five to ten years to have a real you know Engineers like myself. Not that I'm saying I'm some great amazing engineer. but when I learned the engineers that train me and sort of the engineers that my generation become and which we've got with us in our business, they just don't make them anymore and it takes 10 15 years and I think there's been too much product and too much noisiness.

and I think next year we may find that it slows things down significantly and it might be a case of you can't buy a product from a distributor because they haven't got the staff or they just can't deliver. You know if they if if they can or you know. Let's just say a manufacturer has had another record year. next year and they're planning for a record year.

They can't physically deliver the orders and the companies can't just install the Kit in the time. I think there's going to be a time lapse I don't know what your take on this. Josh If you have a similarity in the in the states where you may not be able to actually it things slow down because there just aren't people there to deliver them. Yeah, uh I think you you're You hit the nail on the head.

especially with the baby boomer generation. and I think that there is gonna it Could be. It could go one or two ways. it could continue to be magnified as we go on.

Or you're going to see companies do a pivot and they're going to offer you know more DIY products you're gonna see. Um, more? Um, you're gonna see less complications, right? They're going to have to come up with ways where it you know today if I have a system down I've got to diagnose one of you know 30 different parts that could be causing this issue. Where instead because no one can work on them, then maybe these companies will come up with ways where you just swap out the entire unit because the the problem has at least been isolated to the outdoor unit or or whatever the case is I Think that I think you're you're 100 right? You know they can only sell what folks are going to buy and folks aren't going to keep buying stuff if no one can work on it. And so that you know they're going to have to figure that problem out themselves, that the people you know, the manufacturers that are selling these products.

So whether uh, whether that vacuum gets filled as you said, it takes time, maybe that it could you know swing back around as they see guys like me and you that are the Next Generation start to be worth a whole lot more money, you know? So we're making a whole lot more money. So you see the Next Generation that says oh well. a whole bunch more of us want to get in this industry because look at all the money that can be made so that's that. Goes back, correct? So that's a massive plus side.

and I Really hope that happens because you know plumbers. HVAC Electricians trades have always been seen as mediocre versus you know as I like to say as I've been told quite recently bad project managers are usually bad Engineers or some of them bad engineers make bad project managers and the project managers get a little bit more money than the engineers and it's always been quite wrong actually because they use less brain cells. Um, but you, that's the plus side on this. The vacuum could be filled and that could be the financial side of things I don't know.

it's uh, it's it. really is interesting. It's going to be an interesting year with this kind of stuff. It really is.

Um, but let's see what happens, right? That's right. I Think you're going to see a lot of businesses started as well. So as long as the economy uh, holds on a little bit longer, I think you're going to see more and more techs. Uh, go out on their own.

You're going to see at least here in the US you're going to see. You know a lot of more self-employed people because of the you know of the solutions that a lot of these companies are coming up with. They're selling directly to the consumer. you know We talked about this in our last show a lot of Manufacturers especially the traditional brands for years marketed to us, the contractor and then it was up to each local contractor to educate and and Market to their local uh, you know, territory of homeowners if you will.

Yeah, and I think you're you're seeing less of that I think you're seeing Brands Uh, more and more of them are looking for ways to connect um, to the homeowners directly. I've been in some meetings with that stuff as well where they're looking at, you know, uh, you know YouTube influencers If You will. People like that they're looking at more, uh, ways of advertising such as you know, if you go on your streaming TV service and you're watching uh, something on television, you're gonna see more and more. And it's not just heating and air, but just brands that were more of a wholesale type brand because you're going to have to Pivot Or they're going to be like they're going to be like Blockbuster when Netflix came along they're gonna have to figure out a way to keep up with it and I know why.

It's because they're seeing other brands do that and they're they're You know we have Brands here that I don't think y'all have there um that that's they've they're trying to be that DIY product and that someone goes into a hardware store and buys and uh, it's not. You know it is what it is, but you're gonna see all these traditional Brands get with it as well. they're going to Pivot to that I think is this is the show? It's the shopping list. Uh, the shopping list sort of way of buying things.

um the amount of you know using Daikin admit is an example. They've sort of slowly pushed us now so we no longer Place emails to place orders, we now use their online shop and uh, and and also I don't know if you have Costco in the states? Yes So Costco actually sell baking products. So yeah, just your spot. You're spot on with that, but you know what? Josh If if you haven't got the people to install it or the costs as much without the warranty, sometimes you know what.

It's not necessarily a bad thing because it's what I call fit and forget you fit it and then you no longer speak to them again because it's not your problem. Um, touching on 2023. Actually, we're talking about you and the baby boomer generation. um HVAC and air conditioning isn't big in colleges in the UK and also there are no government incentives in place to train I think if there was a government incentive for for recognition and heat pump businesses to train staff or an incentive for youngsters to get into our trade I think that's something which would make it much more attractive again thinking two to five years time.

I It really is. Yeah, 2023 is going to be massive. like it's it's probably gonna be. The 2023 is going to lead the way in my opinion for 2024 to 2030.

I Think whatever happens next year is what's going to and you've mentioned the gas chip, the phase out of 410A in the states. whatever happens next year in my opinion will lead the way for the rest of the for the next five years. Absolutely. I'm totally with you on that this this next year, the next 12 to 18 months.

Um, you're gonna again. you're gonna see stuff that you've never ever seen before. Yeah in our industry because they they have to find a way to to get around some of these things. you know, maybe maybe not get around it, but get with it.

you know that's it. So wonderful work It's been great to see you. Josh Merry Christmas Happy New Year and this is us for the for the rest of the year Now back in the new year a lot more things in the pipeline. So I I Really hope I Really hope you? Uh yeah I really hope everything goes well with you and you keep doing your thing.

You too you too I I Uh it's nice to see you guys I Feel like there are a lot of different YouTube channels out there that are doing other things. They're either you know they're they're fixing an air conditioner and they've got a camera along or they you know they're they have other, um, other motivations to be doing what they're doing other goals in mind. Whereas I feel like you guys are doing almost exactly what we're trying to do which is share information to Consumers and to homeowners making a tough decision uh and giving them the information that no one else is giving them. you know and so I appreciate what you guys Josh Josh there's nothing Josh there's nothing Josh is nothing.

Um, you know being wrong is amazing, you know and I think as engineers and and as people that dealing with products. every single day we all have conversations over trade desks or with manufacturers or with homeowners and I think it's our duty to to exploit that conversation and to open it up and I think to have feedback from which is going to be next for us. We want the manufacturers to answer the questions and actually throw it at us and say well, we do this because of this and I think it will change our thought um, in the UK and the states because it's not always a sales pitch. These sales reps are also people and they also have agendas and they also have their concerns.

And I think yeah for us next year, we really want to get the manufacturers involved because it'll help boost their product, but not just help boost their products. It'll help homeowners understand the way things are done. And I think that's what we're missing and we'll be definitely getting you involved. It could be like a manufacturer.

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